Forecast of development of the Ukrainian market of shopping and business centers for 2019-2020

Commercial real estate is the largest segment in the structure of clients, Facility Management Companies. Trade and business centers often give questions related to the management and operation of real estate on outsourcing, both in Ukraine and in the world in general. What are the prospects for this segment for the next two years? Let’s try to understand this article.

Dexus 1 Bligh St Clayton Utz ©Brendan Read 2011

According to SHEN, at the end of 2018, approximately 75,000 square meters were commissioned in Kiev. rental space in the shopping center / mall. Thus, the total volume of retail space in the capital amounted to 1,319 thousand square meters. The dynamics of vacancy and the maximum rental rates according to Colliers International are as follows:

As for the Business Centers, in the capital last year almost 40,000 sq.m. were commissioned. new areas, while the level of gross absorption in 2018 amounted to 105 thousand sq. m. Thus, the vacancy rate in the segment was reduced to 6.5%.   The total supply on the market at the end of 2018 was 1,884 thousand square meters. The greatest demand for offices in the past year was observed on the part of companies in the field of IT, manufacturing and professional services.

What does the future hold for us?

Based on market data and own forecasts of SHEN experts, in the next two years, another 8 new shopping and entertainment centers are expected to be commissioned, 6 of which are to open in Kiev. Thus, the total volume of commissioning of the new offer will be about 633 thousand sq. M. However, it is worth mentioning here that the opening of several shopping centers has already been postponed several times, and it is likely that in 2019-2020 these facilities will not be launched either.

Among the planned for opening in 2019 are such large objects as Blockbuster Mall, Retroville, Ocean Mall. In Odessa, the next stage is the opening of the second phase of the SEC Gagarinn Plaza and in Lviv the launch of the sports and entertainment center Spartak is expected. The total area of ​​commissioned facilities will be 440 thousand square meters. m., of which in Kiev almost 300 thousand sq. m. These numbers can be an absolute record for the Ukrainian market.

The growing demand for high-quality retail space will boost the entry of long-awaited new operators to the market, such as IKEA and the expected expansion of companies like H & M.

As for business centers, here we will see a slightly different picture in the next two years. In 2019, a large increase in office space is not expected. Among the main objects can be identified office buildings on the street. Gaidar 54 area of ​​about 12 thousand square meters. and BC Wave Tower area of ​​about 22 thousand square meters. However, according to experts, due to the stabilization of the situation on the market, developers are showing the readiness to build new facilities, and in 2020 several interesting projects can enter the market.

The vacancy rate in the office sector this year may drop to 5%, due to the low volumes of new supply and growing demand from tenants.

SHEN experts point out that for the scope of management facilitation, such forecasts mean a significant impetus to the development of services for retail facilities, with a focus on automating processes in order to optimize resources and time. Maintenance of office buildings will also remain a priority in the commercial real estate sector, however, the development of services for business centers will be somewhat slower, and service requirements will be less stringent in comparison with shopping and entertainment centers.